Is everybody ready for the weekend? I hope so, but the business-week isn't quite over yet, and we've got one more item to take care of today. It's a big one too - employment (or lack thereof). What appeared to be good news this morning prodded a rally from the market this afternoon, but as all of us know, there's always more to the story. We're going to give you the COMPLETE employment picture today, warts and all. Though things aren't as good as the unemployment rate of 7.7% would suggest, we actually see this as a good thing. Say what? We'll explain why in a second. First, let's update our near-term outlook on a stock market that just doesn't seem like it wants to quit. Red Flag Do you ever get that funny feeling things just aren't the way they seem? I've got it right now after Friday's - after this week's - action from the market. Today's 0.5% pop means six straight days of gains. In fact, the S&P 500 has rallied 2.2% this week alone, on what really wasn't great news. It's a modest case of "too much, too fast." What I'm really hung up on, though is, today's market-index bars, or the shape of today's high, low, opening price, and closing price. I don't know how many of you are into candlestick analysis, but for those who are, you may immediately recognize today's bars for most of the market-based ETFs and some of the market indices made hammer formations. What's that mean? It just means the shape of today's market action formed what look like (unshockingly enough) a hammer, with the mallet part at the top, and the handle part at the bottom; they're also called hanging man formations. It matters, because hanging man and hammer formations are also often indications of near-term market tops. Hammers that materialize after a 2.2% gain in one week - the same week the indices run into major prior ceilings - are even scarier. This page over at stockcharts.com explains it pretty well. The catch: I've yet to find any source of candlestick tips or advice that doesn't make a point of saying confirmation is needed. In other words, we still need to see some clear evidence that a top has been made. That evidence comes in the form of a move lower. A close under today's low should do the trick. Either way, the potential for a pullback is more than a little heightened right now. I wouldn't necessarily start shorting the market yet, but there's no way I'd be adding new long or bullish positions here until we got some clarity on things. We should have that clarity by Monday. That's a short-term look though. We've got a different long-term stance after today's employment data. Unemployment Reality The good news is, unemployment fell last month. Well, the government's calculation of the official unemployment rate fell last month, from 7.9% to 7.7%. The Department of Labor also said the nation added (net) 236,000 new jobs in February. That's in line with the recent monthly jobs-growth rate. Stocks advanced about half of a percent on the news. Before you break out the champagne though, you might want to look at the rest of the data (which we'll happily supply for you). Just for the record, falling unemployment and positive job growth last month isn't the only evidence of a strong jobs situation. The number of people who are unemployed is falling too, hitting 120.3 million in February. That's way less than 153.9 million unemployed people from late 2009. The number of employed people (the inverse of the number of unemployed people) is rising too, reaching 143.5 million Americans last month. That's better than the 138.0 million people that were working in late 2009. Take a closer look at the numbers, however. The increase in number of people who are working now doesn't jive with the number of people who have stopped working between 2009 and now. How's that happen? Because many of those people are taking themselves out of the potential workforce. In fact, the government officially labels them "not in the labor force but want a job." That figure now stands at 6.8 million, versus 4.8 million in mid-2007. At the same time though, the civilian labor force - people who are of working age - has reached 155.5 million, versus 153.1 million in late 2009. Now if you didn't have a calculator handy to do the math, don't bother, 'cause I can sum the whole thing up with just one single number... the employed/population ratio, or participation rate. It now stands at 58.6%, versus 62.7% for most of 2007. The point is, while the jobs situation is getting better (the participation rate is tepidly rising), it's not getting leaps and bounds better. It's just ok. Thing is, that's exactly where we want to be right now, given the alternative. Think about it. If the employment situation were worsening, that would likely mean the economy was contracting. That's bad for all stocks. If job growth was soaring, that would likely mean the economy was roaring. The rising tide would likely lift all stocks, which is good, but that scenario could run the risk of the Fed dialing back on its stimulus. With employment and the economy just waffling around with a "so-so" status, however, the Fed doesn't want to rock the boat in either direction. More specifically for us, it means this is still a stock-picker's market. In this mediocre environment, good companies do well, and weak companies don't. That disparity means good stock-pickers and savvy traders have a chance to seriously outperform everyone else. That's a good thing. Now, if you're willing and able to make those picks for yourself, then great. If you want to delegate some of that work to seasoned market veterans though, then that's exactly what the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity service can do for you. These guys have been absolutely on fire lately, closing out a 15% gain on Google (GOOG), and also locking down a 40% winner on Novatel (NVTL) with this afternoon's daily update. Both ideas were less than two months old. Not bad. The SCN EO also added a new idea on Thursday, and it's not too late to get in on that one. Go here and see what it's all about it. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/. The Elite Opportunity service even offers month-long terms, so you can give it a test drive. In the meantime, have a great weekend. We'll be back at it on Monday.