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VOLUME
04: ISSUE 11
Feature:
NASDAQ tightens, Imclone brightens and Homeland heightens.
Since
today is Friday the 13th, tomorrow, Valentine's Day--also known as male
atonement day--and Monday, the President's Day holiday, I thought we'd drive-by
a few topics and visit a selection of stocks that we cover. And, being
a full service newsletter, a Valentine gift suggestion follows....
NASDAQ: A Rubber Band?
Don't need a chart for this one.
The NAS is stuck between a range of 2000 and 2100. Our view is that a break
above 2100 would further validate the bulls. A break below 2050 would see
some bearish weakness, albeit short-lived in our view.
Given that in the last reporting
period, 67 percent of the S&P 500 companies beat earnings expectations,
while 20 percent met them, the 13 percent that missed the cut should only
marginally concern investors. The horizon, while bumpy, still looks to
have a continued upward bias.
Imclone: The Intel of Biotech?
Thursday night, the FDA approved
Imclone's (NASDAQ IMCL)
application for its cancer drug, Erbitux. Although the stock is not yet
near Martha's contentious sale price of $60, the shares did shoot up, pre-opening
Friday, by almost $11 to $45 and change.
The
big news is not just the acceptance of a blockbuster drug that may help
thousands of patients, but that the FDA approval will put both large and
small biotech companies firmly back on investors' radar screens.
Over and above the past travails
of Imclone, the bottom line is that it takes years for a drug to come to
market. In our little corner of the world we have seen how the process
can play out with the volatility in the shares of unique cancer therapy
concern Cel-Sci (AMEX: CVM).
Since late 2003, Cel-Sci has been
stuck in a trading range of between $1.05 and $1.40. We believe that the
shares are in a consolidation phase while investors await more news. As
an aside, CVM has, over the last year, been a better performer than Imclone.
Ten years ago, IMCL traded at roughly what CVM does now. Not that we
think it will take ten years more for CVM to prosper--let us be clear--but
it makes an interesting comparison.
We have often said that investors
are welcome--even encouraged-- to trade CVM shares. We have also said that
investors should always maintain at least a small, core position in the
company. One day, Cel-Sci will likely announce timing for a Phase III trial,
perhaps a deal with a big pharma company, or some other snappy corporate
development. As CEO Geert Kersten pointed out in his recent Letter to Shareholders,
the company has met and defeated past challenges and, while there will
likely be more in the future, he is confident those too will be identified
and dispatched.
Cel-Sci is at a watershed. We feel
that the next few months should be exciting for this company, which has
dedicated almost twenty years to the development of unique drugs and therapies
that could revolutionize cancer treatment.
Homeland
Security Forever
I tend to get lots of pointed email
when I delve into political discussions in the SmallCap Digest. All I can
say is: Get over it. When political machinations cease to define economic
developments, I'll stop.
The rest of the year looks to be
shaping up as one of the most vicious political battles of a generation.
John Kerry will likely square off against George Bush in November. As I
said in my 2004 predictions
piece, the election will be very close. And likely very, very nasty.
The
one thing that will transcend all the jockeying will be the progress of
the Homeland Security sector. The protection of the USA has not only become
a way of life, but is emerging as one of the largest economic sectors,
again, within a generation--regardless of which party occupies the White
House
It matters not who wins in November.
Homeland Security, as a social and economic force is, unfortunately, here
to stay.
Over the last couple of years, the
budget for Homeland Security has doubled. The Department is looking for
more than $40 billion for 2004-2005 to keep the nation safe.
We
believe that we are well represented to participate in this sector with
our coverage of Spectrum Sciences (OTCBB:
SPSC) and Xtreme Companies (OTCBB:
XTME). The former is not only profitable, but continues to add
contracts, reduce debt and exhibit the moxie needed to take it from a smallcap
to what we believe will be a major defense/Homeland Security supplier.
The latter, Xtreme, while at an earlier stage of development that Spectrum,
has both nifty products and marketing plans that we feel will grab a decent
marketshare of the business portion of keeping the nation safe.
Each company has already seen
decent gains since we initiated coverage. We strongly believe that there
is much more to come for both. Ensure that you have at least a small initial
position and use any weakness to accumulate shares for the long term.
Our focus on the Homeland Security
sector will grow as these companies prosper over the next 6-12 months.
As well, we are actively looking for more to add to the stable.
As promised: Everyone gets
flowers for Valentines. Be creative. Flowers die. Properly maintained,
a Lexus is forever.
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