Not exactly an eventful day for stocks on Friday (not that we don't know why). We'll take a more detailed look at the overall market in a second. First we wanted to answer a question that rolled in this week about our new stock-rating system. Kevin writes:
What do we do if we like a particular company, but don't necessarily like it at its current price or at the current time?
Great question, and thanks for asking it.
Just so you know, you can change your bullish or bearish stance on a stock pick at any time (just as easily as you made your call in the first place). Call it a buy today, and call it a sell tomorrow, if you want. There's no limit on the number of times you can change your mind.
That being said, the situation Kevin asked about above may be the perfect reason to remind you that the SmallCap Network is a perfect platform to explain every thought and strategy you have about a particular stock.
If you like a company, you can explain why in a research report. If you want to comment on some news from a company, you can spout off in an article. If you want to actually go on record with an explicit buy or a sell in your hypothetical portfolio, that's when you can rate a stock as a buy or a sell. You don't have to use all your publishing tools together, but it sure might help clarify things when you like a company but want to wait for a better price on an actual trade entry. And on something of a side note, if you want to establish yourself as the next stock-picking journalist mogul, you probably should be using all the publishing and picking tools together.
OK, on to the market stuff.
Fuhgettaboutit
Yeah, stocks closed a tad lower today, but I'd be doing you an injustice if I said it meant something. The fact of the matter is, most traders were mentally - if not physically - checked out today, getting an early start on the long weekend. Volume was literally as low as we've seen it any day this year. Point being, this isn't the majority opinion. Heck, with the close pretty much where we closed yesterday, we'd be hard pressed to even call today's action an opinion at all.
That doesn't mean we can't take a look at where we are, however.
To tell you the truth, between Thursday's intraday rebound and today's intraday rebound, the market's acting more bullish than I would have expected. I'm not saying I'm bullish overall, but I am saying I would have figured the sellers would have been out in full force after Wednesday's major reversal bar. The hammer-shaped bars from today and yesterday both suggest there are net-buyers around the 1636 area ready to crank the market back up again when push comes to shove. Still, the ingredients for a bigger correction are on the table. That begins with a close under the 20-day moving average line at 1633.64.
If it sounds a lot like what I was telling you yesterday, that's because it is. It's just the nature of long weekends for the market. To try and read anything more into it than this could be dangerous.
Next Week
With Memorial Day on Monday, the market's gotta squeeze a full week's worth of news and information into just four days instead of five. Fortunately, there's not much on the plate now that earnings season is all but over, and with only one FDA-driven catalyst in the queue.
The biotech/pharma event is next Friday's (the 31st) PDUFA date for an undisclosed product from Flamel Technologies (FLML).
Most of the time the public is privy to the drug or product the Food and Drug Administration is going to be making a final decision on, but sometimes for competitive reasons the product isn't disclosed. That's what's going on here for Flamel. We do know, however, that the company thinks this particular product could generate about $30 million in annual sales. For a $120 million company that drives revenue of about $25 million per year, this would be a big deal. That's why this is one of those few times where I can say this stock might may be worth a gamble/ trade.
When a Merck (MRK) or a Pfizer (PFE) get one of their minor drugs approved, so what? Both mega-companies have so much more going on with other products and drugs that adding one more to the menu doesn't really matter. For Flamel though, this product could be a game-changer.
I have no idea what the secret hospital product could be, but if you think you've got a bead on what it is, let us know.
As for economic data, there's a moderate amount on the horizon, but nothing that I can honestly say is worth worrying about. This will be the second GDP estimate for Q1, but it's not likely to change much from the first guess.
The only economic news of any real interest to me is the measure of consumer opinion, via Tuesday's Conference Board's Consumer Confidence reading for May, and Friday's final reading for May's Michigan Sentiment Index score. The Conference Board's confidence score has been tepidly falling since October; so has the Michigan Sentiment score. We could use a nice rise from either or both, while a lower reading from either or both could really sucker-punch this vulnerable market.
Earnings-wise, well, earnings season is basically over. There are four S&P 500 names with earnings news on the way next week, but none that I think can make or break the market at this point. I'll have an overarching summary of first quarter's results - and an earnings reality check for the rest of the year - next week. Speaking of....
Monday is Memorial Day, and a market holiday, so we won't be publishing. Enjoy your long weekend, and if you're traveling, be safe.
Before we sign-off though, let me just remind you one more time that you can now place your bullish or bearish opinion on any stock at the site. If you haven't done it yet, just to get the ball rolling I'm going to dare everyone to cast their ballot on a name I know you've all got an opinion about - Apple (AAPL). Just click here, and near the top of the page click on either the 'Rate AAPL a Buy' or 'Rate AAPL a Sell' button. That's it. Like we told you on Wednesday, if you prove yourself a good enough stock picker, it may even mean you earn some money.
One last thing.... thank you to our nation's veterans, active military personnel, and those who gave everything serving our country! You're all heroes in my book.