News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Here's One Way to Play the Budding Santa Claus Rally
/

February 2, 2024

/

PDT

Man-oh-man I hope you've been trading the stock picks we've been issuing to you these past few weeks. Our open trades had a very big day today, with two of the three taking a giant step forward (enough to raise our stops on 'em), while the third one still made some market-beating progress of its own. In fact, our portfolio has been so red hot lately, we're going to go ahead and put a new pick/idea on the table.... to see if we can take advantage of any year-end - and year-beginning - bullishness that'll give us a nice profit cushion. First things first though. Let's run-down what happened with our three existing trades. Holy Cow! Monday's biggest winner was Fred's (FRED), jumping about 4.0%. Assuming an entry of $17.25 on November 26th following our recommendation from the 25th, you're now up about 5.8%. That's not the big deal though. The big deal here is how FRED has cleared the resistance level around $17.60 I was griping about to you just a few days ago. While I have a feeling at least a few bears and a handful of profit-takers are going to push back a little after today's bump, the hard work's been done. As long as the $17.60 line holds as a floor, Fred's is probably going to remain in its new uptrend for a while. What's (still) curious is how there's been no news from, or even about, the company of late. The stock's just perking up on its own... not that I'm complaining. Just to be as prudent as possible though, let's go ahead and set a mental stop loss right at $17.25. This should ensure we do no worse than a breakeven (barring a wild bearish gap) should the sellers get a little exuberant. Our other red-hot stock today was Silicon Image (SIMG). We suggested it back on December 16th, which means you could have gotten into it on the 17th for somewhere around $5.49. Thanks to today's near-2.0% pop, the stock's right around $5.90, up 8.0% for us. Let's go ahead and say the mental stop loss is our entry price of $5.50, which means, like FRED, we should do no worse than a breakeven. As was the case with Fred's, there's no news or specific prompt pushing SIMG higher here. This is just the market's changing opinion of the company being priced into the stock's value. Though we can foresee a little turbulence ahead now that there's so much froth, there's little doubt as to the validity of the new uptrend. Even the weakest of our three open trades today was a relative winner. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) gained about 0.7% on Monday, outperforming the market. It still needs to move above the big technical hurdle around $28.55 to really get going. But, it's in the hunt. Perhaps a little news IS going to be necessary to shake SWKS into rally mode again. There wasn't any news about the company today, and look what happened - not much. We told you about Skyworks Solutions on November 22nd, which means you could have stepped into a SWKS trade on the 25th for something around $26.60. That translates into an unrealized gain of 5.0% so far. That's not huge, but it's not bad for one month (especially with the undertow still being basically bullish). New Pick So what's our new pick? Group 1 Automotive (GPI). No, it's not a stock I would have ever guessed we'd be naming as a trade idea for you in the newsletter. The more I look at it though, the more I think there's some short-term money to be made with GPI here. First and foremost, this is a trade and NOT an investment.... for us anyway. While the company's earnings growth and the stock's advance have been impressive for a few years now, I'm just not seeing it as a long-term idea. At least not yet. This is intended to be a short-term holding, for one key reason - shares have recently pushed up and off of a long-term support line, and if history repeats itself, Group 1 Automotive shares are en route to a parallel resistance line about $15 above where GPI is trading now. That translates into a 20% upside, give or take, which is pretty much our minimum "worth the trouble/risk" threshold. Now, while this is primarily a chart-prompted trading idea we're passing along to you, like every other trade we've suggested here in the newsletter this year, the chart's bullishness is supported by the company's strong fundamentals. Sales have been growing for several years, as the nearby chart illustrates. And, they're projected to keep doing so for several more years. On the income front, the bottom line - and the bottom line's growth rate - has been just as impressive. While we've seen a couple of earnings misses over the past four quarters, even those misses were quarters where year-over-year income grew. And again, the company's profit-growth pace is as likely to be as strong in the future as it's been in the recent past. The EPS chart from cnbc.com tells the story. Bottom line: It's nothing particularly fancy, but the Group 1 Automotive opportunity is a higher-odds, lower-risk kind of idea that's worth a shot until we start to find more good ideas than we can deal with. Just be sure to keep a short leash on GPI until we get a little bit of a profit cushion on the position. The budding Santa Claus rally looks like it's going to give us that nudge. Did You See? Yes, I realize stocks were up today. Honestly though, I don't know that I'd chase the market here. I've got serious doubts about the market being able to go any higher from here without pulling back a little - if for no other reason than to verify we're actually in an uptrend - before we actually make higher highs. As such, it's a waiting game now. Just know that we may have to wait until next week to see all the chips fall, as we're now in the midst of a typical Santa Claus rally. In the meantime, there were a few items at the site worth a look: Has everybody been following the Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) saga? Its cancer drug Inclusig was taken off the market a few weeks ago due to some safety concerns, but the FDA has decided the benefit it still greater than the risk and has reinstated the drug's approval. Anyway, kudos to Bryan Murphy who seems to have seen it coming and explained how to play it beginning last Thursday, and then followed up on it today. If you're not sure whether you want to jump in now, he may have an answer. James Brumley made a compelling case for Rexahn Pharmaceuticals (RNN) today.... a stock that doesn't look like much at first, but a name that looks more and more compelling the longer you study a chart. Finally, Peter Graham put COREwafer Industries Inc (WAFR), DC Brands International (HRDN) and PV Enterprises International (PVEC) through a reality check today. All three stocks were huge winners on Friday, but as usual, there's more to the story. That's it for today, but remember, keep reading - we've got some very useful year-end stuff for you planned for the newsletter later this week and early next week.