News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Is This Industry's Four-Year Dry Spell Finally Over?
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Good afternoon, everybody (or good evening or good morning, depending on when you open this e-mail). We hope your Tuesday was a good one. It was certainly a busy one, with Apple unveiling pretty much what everyone expected, while the discussion about what to do in Syria intensified. The bulls continued their romp too, solidifying the breakout effort already underway. We'll look at how it's all taking shape on our index charts below, but first, there's another important chart I need to show you largely because I know nobody else is telling you about it. A Budding Trend Nobody Else Sees One of the nuances of the SmallCap Network newsletter has been - and always will be - our aim to bring you the stories and ideas you need to know, even if they're not the hot-button topics at the time. For example, though we could talk ad nauseam about it, you probably already know all you care to know about the new Apple (AAPL) iPhone. It's not likely, however, you realized this nation's failing water infrastructure is such a problem... and such an opportunity. Yet, Northwest Pipe (NWPX) is up for us, and is on the verge of an explosive move higher. The water pipe theme is an obscure trend, but a good one to tap into as it's going to get bigger for a long time [I've still got another water infrastructure company to tell you about this week too, though it's not an actual pick yet.] There's another obscure developing trend like that one, and though it's not quite fully gelled yet, it's something well worth putting on your radar. Remember back between 2006 and 2008 when oil prices were sky high and the global economy was humming? The maritime shopping industry was just going nuts. While everyone grumbled about higher gas and oil prices, the world kept on burning more and more of it. There just wasn't enough crude oil to go around, and even when a source could be secured, there still weren't enough tankers to transport oil across the ocean. Ditto for dry goods... everything from building materials to iron ore to electronics. Tankers and transport vessels were operating at more than maximum capacity, new boats were being built like crazy, yet the cost to charter shipping vessels was still skyrocketing, more than doubling between mid-2006 and mid-2008. Of course, it all came unraveled in the latter part of 2008 when the global economy collapsed. Boat charter rates plunged by more than 90%...where they've pretty much stayed ever since. The current charter rates don't even cover the typical vessel's operating costs, meaning it's arguably better to mothball a boat until better days return. In fact, plenty of boats have been mothballed in the meantime. Well guys and gals, better days for the maritime transportation industry may finally be here. Some of you may already know what the Baltic Dry Index is, but for those who don't, it's real simple - it's an index measuring the average daily cost to charter a dry-goods-carrying vessel. The price to charter an oil tanker doesn't perfectly jive with the charter rates for a dry bulk carrier, but the two are related closely enough to say if the Baltic Dry Index is on the mend, then the oil shipping industry is also improving. Well, after a multi-year lull, the Baltic Dry Index is now on the rise. It's not just a blip either. We've seen plenty of blips since the beginning of 2012. The current ascension in the BDI is a trend-changing one. It's up 111% year-to-date, but more than that, the Baltic Dry Index has moved above several key resistance lines in a healthy - and relatively sustainable - way. Take a look; the shift in direction is visibly evident. Just for the record, I still don't think the breakout effort we've seen is rock-solid enough to bet the farm on. I'd really like to see what happens once the BDI is tested and pulls back to the 1000-ish area. If we see it regroup and perk up again there, that will be the final assurance this (and the terrible analogy is 100% intended) ship has finally been turned around. I'll keep tabs on it for if-and-when it happens. Do put it on your radar in the meantime though. As for the stocks most affected by the budding rebound from the Baltic Dry Index, FreeSeas (FREE), NewLead Holdings (NEWL), Seanergy Maritime Holdings (SHIP), and Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) seem to be the busiest names. All four were at the top of today's "active" lists, with a little more fervor than usual. I suspect a handful of traders have already seen what you just read about above, and are already taking positions to capitalize on it. I'm not sure I'd take that plunge just yet, though I can't say I don't understand why they're doing so. No related picks yet - I'm waiting for a dip. Like I said though, this is most definitely something to put on your radar today, even if nobody else is talking about it. Heck, the fact that nobody else is talking about it may be the perfect reason to plant the seed today. It's a Split Decision Oh boy. You know, as incredible as it may seem to say it on the second day in a row the NASDAQ Composite closed at new multi-year highs, there's not a lot to say today - we're still in a holding pattern waiting to see what happens once all these buyers finally look back and see how high we've climbed since the end of late last month. If they look back and don't freak out (and hit the sell button), this may well end up being a surprise September rally. If instead they look back and end up uncomfortable with the romp into new-high territory, things could get real ugly, real fast. Of course, if you've been reading the newsletter at least for a few days you already knew that much. Anyway, the S&P 500 has now made gains in eight of the past nine days, and is up 3.2% since August 27th. While the volume hasn't been huge, it's been solid. It's about as bullish as you could expect the market to be this time of year anyway... maybe even too bullish. Like I told you yesterday, things have been suspiciously strong of late, and became even more suspicious today. I'm not trying to be Debbie-downer here. I'm just trying to give you an honest assessment and some helpful perspective; the market has a tendency to zig just when everyone's sure it's going to zag, and a lot of people are oddly confident at this point. But hey - maybe my pessimism is out of line. I'm certainly willing to entertain the idea, though I'd be a lot more willing to entertain it if the rally actually survived a serious test. So far the only reason the rally's been as strong as it has is because the bears simply haven't felt like growling, allowing the bullishness to turn a little parabolic this week. These red hot moves are fun, but when they stop, yikes. Take a look at the S&P 500 and see what you think. The NASDAQ Composite's chart is even more bullish, in the sense that it put some distance between itself and the prior ceiling around 3694. The volume behind the rally here has been solid too. The only thing I can't technically like about the NASDAQ's chart is the way it left behind a gap with today's strong open. The market doesn't like to leave gaps unfilled, which will put bearish pressure on the index soon... probably this week. So what's the MO here? Same as before - let's stick to the sidelines for the time being and wait to see what happens once stocks have to deal with a real stumble. I suspect things won't be as bullish once traders are reminded the market's not infallible here, and the "not invading Syria after all" trade can only get so much traction. We weren't going to invade Syria a couple of weeks ago either, and the interest in stocks clearly wasn't as strong then as it is now. There are a few specific ceilings and floors we could talk about, but I can save those discussions for when those lines come into play. While we're on hold waiting for the market to find its bearings, here's a special offer for SmallCap Network subscribers.