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PEG Ratios: A leg up on the market?
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February 2, 2024

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Dow Jones 8843.61 +132.43 10:00 am PST, May 30, 2003  NASDAQ 1591.53 +16.58 For info, visit access.smallcapnetwork.com S & P 500 961.96 +12.32 To be removed, please click here Russell 2000 438.79 +6.15 VOLUME 03: ISSUE 26  PEG Ratios: A leg up on the Market? Before we enter into a discussion of how to calculate a price/earnings to growth (PEG) ratio, a word of warning: when taking this figure from a quote provider, make sure you know exactly how it was calculated. Some providers use historical earnings growth in their PEG calculations, while others use projected numbers. The resultant ratios will be very different. The PEG ratio is calculated by dividing the price/earnings  (P/E) ratio by the earnings per share (EPS) growth. The PEG ratio gives investors more information than the p/e ratio, as there are more constituent numbers. While the p/e tells the story of how a stock fares in the current environment against its own historical p/e, those of its peers and against the market overall, the PEG takes the process one step further and relates a company's growth to share price. In this way, investors can see whether the share price is overvalued or undervalued based on historical or projected growth figures. A calculating PEG The growth figure used in the calculation should be the average gleaned over more than one year. A three to five year growth figure is a good benchmark, whether historical or projected data is used. This smooths out one-time earnings spikes as well as cash or non-cash items that can either inflate or deflate earnings numbers.  In our discussion on p/e's, we used White Electronics (NASDAQ: WEDC). Apples to apples--let's use it here, too. First, some context. A PEG ratio revolves around 1.0, which represents fair value for a stock. A calculation of more than 1.0 denotes overvalued-the further past 1 the more overvalued. Conversely, a reading under 1 represents an undervalued situation. That said, investors have to factor in the pounding earnings growth has taken over the past few years. Just as p/e's are improving and a higher reading may not be indicative of an exorbitant valuation, so too a PEG that may be higher than historic norms must be viewed relative to lousy past growth and currently improving prospects.  Though more indicative than a simple p/e ratio, the PEG is merely one more tool on the road to due diligence.  Using it in isolation would be just plain goofy. And dangerous. 1.0 is the loneliest number? First Call has posted a projected average annual growth rate for WEDC of 14 percent for the next five years. As well, the projected price/earnings ratio averages around 18 times over the next two years. If we divide the projected p/e by the growth rate the PEG equals 1.28 times. At first glance, the shares may appear slightly overvalued, but we have to view past performance in context when deciding on the worth of a PEG ratio.  Let's take the ratio to a bigger stock. While Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) has a mean growth rate of 15 percent for the next five years, the projected p/e is at 25 times, With the shares at $16.40 and the consensus projected earnings at 64 cents for fiscal 2004, the PEG comes in at 1.66 times. Again, context. Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) PEG comes in at around 1.5-1.6 times. As you can see, a small company such as WEDC may well have a lower PEG ratio than its higher profile tech peers. The determination therefore is relative. Those growth numbers are likely improving-although they're more muted-due to the ugly markets of the recent past and the new conservatism that has been forced upon companies and analysts. It's back, baby... As a result of the lousy earnings growth experienced in the recent past, the PEG ratio became meaningless and was all but abandoned. That was then. Now, as we see companies trim costs, grow earnings, and the market become a might calmer, the PEG will likely re-appear as a valuable tool that allows investors to quick-ratio a potential investment. Calculate the PEG often, as the constituent numbers can change frequently. In the big picture, the S&P 500 index has a current PEG ratio of around 1.25-1.3 times, based on projected growth figures. Historical annual earnings growth averages 11 percent, while projected annual earnings growth is estimated at 21 percent. The current p/e ratio for the S&P 500 is 26-27 times. If the historic earnings growth rate of 11 percent is used, the PEG rises to 2.4. Hence the need, as mentioned at the outset, for determining which growth figure is used.  Things do, however, appear to be looking up. Investors can calculate the PEG both for individual stocks and for their own portfolios. Calculating the PEG ratio for a portfolio is an excellent way to measure how much risk you are assuming against a diversified benchmark such as the S&P 500. If you find your projected portfolio PEG is in the double digits with the S&P 500 PEG around 1.3 times, you'd best rethink your strategy. Ever use the PEG? Anything else on your mind? Sure there is. Send thoughts in here: editor@smallcapnetwork.com Unsubscribe Here D I S C L A I M E R : The SmallCap Digest is an independent electronic publication committed to providing our readers with factual information on selected  publicly traded companies. SmallCap Digest is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. 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