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VOLUME
03: ISSUE 26
PEG
Ratios: A leg up on the Market?
Before
we enter into a discussion of how to calculate a price/earnings to growth
(PEG) ratio, a word of warning: when taking this figure from a quote provider,
make sure you know exactly how it was calculated. Some providers use historical
earnings growth in their PEG calculations, while others use projected numbers.
The resultant ratios will be very different.
The PEG ratio is calculated by dividing
the price/earnings (P/E) ratio by the earnings per share (EPS) growth.
The PEG ratio gives investors more information than the p/e ratio, as there
are more constituent numbers.
While the p/e tells the story of
how a stock fares in the current environment against its own historical
p/e, those of its peers and against the market overall, the PEG takes the
process one step further and relates a company's growth to share price.
In this way, investors can see whether the share price is overvalued or
undervalued based on historical or projected growth figures.
A calculating PEG
The growth figure used in the calculation
should be the average gleaned over more than one year. A three to five
year growth figure is a good benchmark, whether historical or projected
data is used. This smooths out one-time earnings spikes as well as cash
or non-cash items that can either inflate or deflate earnings numbers.
In our discussion on p/e's, we used
White Electronics (NASDAQ:
WEDC). Apples to apples--let's use it here, too.
First, some context. A PEG ratio
revolves around 1.0, which represents fair value for a stock. A calculation
of more than 1.0 denotes overvalued-the further past 1 the more overvalued.
Conversely, a reading under 1 represents an undervalued situation. That
said, investors have to factor in the pounding earnings growth has taken
over the past few years. Just as p/e's are improving and a higher reading
may not be indicative of an exorbitant valuation, so too a PEG that may
be higher than historic norms must be viewed relative to lousy past growth
and currently improving prospects.
Though more indicative than a
simple p/e ratio, the PEG is merely one more tool on the road to due diligence.
Using it in isolation would be just
plain goofy. And dangerous.
1.0 is the loneliest number?
First Call has posted a projected
average annual growth rate for WEDC of 14 percent for the next five years.
As well, the projected price/earnings ratio averages around 18 times over
the next two years. If we divide the projected p/e by the growth rate the
PEG equals 1.28 times. At first glance, the shares may appear slightly
overvalued, but we have to view past performance in context when deciding
on the worth of a PEG ratio.
Let's
take the ratio to a bigger stock. While Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:
CSCO) has a mean growth rate of 15 percent for the next five years,
the projected p/e is at 25 times, With the shares at $16.40 and the consensus
projected earnings at 64 cents for fiscal 2004, the PEG comes in at 1.66
times. Again, context. Microsoft's (NASDAQ:
MSFT) PEG comes in at around 1.5-1.6 times.
As you can see, a small company such
as WEDC may well have a lower PEG ratio than its higher profile tech peers.
The determination therefore is relative. Those growth numbers are likely
improving-although they're more muted-due to the ugly markets of the recent
past and the new conservatism that has been forced upon companies and analysts.
It's back, baby...
As a result of the lousy earnings
growth experienced in the recent past, the PEG ratio became meaningless
and was all but abandoned. That was then. Now, as we see companies trim
costs, grow earnings, and the market become a might calmer, the PEG will
likely re-appear as a valuable tool that allows investors to quick-ratio
a potential investment.
Calculate the PEG often, as the
constituent numbers can change frequently.
In the big picture, the S&P 500
index has a current PEG ratio of around 1.25-1.3 times, based on projected
growth figures. Historical annual earnings growth averages 11 percent,
while projected annual earnings growth is estimated at 21 percent. The
current p/e ratio for the S&P 500 is 26-27 times. If the historic earnings
growth rate of 11 percent is used, the PEG rises to 2.4.
Hence the need, as mentioned at the
outset, for determining which growth figure is used.
Things do, however, appear to be
looking up.
Investors can calculate the PEG both
for individual stocks and for their own portfolios. Calculating the PEG
ratio for a portfolio is an excellent way to measure how much risk you
are assuming against a diversified benchmark such as the S&P 500.
If you find your projected portfolio
PEG is in the double digits with the S&P 500 PEG around 1.3 times,
you'd best rethink your strategy.
Ever use the PEG? Anything else on
your mind? Sure there is. Send thoughts in here: editor@smallcapnetwork.com
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