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VOLUME 07: ISSUE 6
FDA
Grants Phase III Approval for CEL-SCI's Multikine
Company
Name:
CEL-SCI
Corporation
Stock
Symbol :
CVM
Coverage
Initiated:
November
8, 2002
Current
Price:
$.60
Average
Volume:
177,654
52
Week Range:
$.49
- $1.78
Suggested
Target:
$1.48
Suggested
Stop:
$.54
Remember
a couple of weeks ago when we discussed how CEL-SCI Corporation (AMEX:
CVM) had been unusually quiet of late? Knowing what we know about the
company, we just figured something big was brewing and the news would be
released seemingly out of nowhere, like a bolt of lightning.
Well,
it seems we were right. In fact, the news CEL-SCI just announced - in
our opinion - might just be the biggest news the company has
had in years. Their primary head and neck cancer treatment, called Multikine,
has just been approved by the FDA to enter Phase III studies in the United
States. Phase III testing is the last research step required by the
FDA before they can decide on any final approval, which is when a drug
therapy or treatment can actually be commercialized.
Needless
to say, we think this is huge - just huge. Back on the 5th, we felt
the stock may be at a short-term bottom. Now with this good news to support
the stock, we don't see what could possibly prevent a rally. As
a result, we're issuing an official trade alert - more on that below.
Getting
Specific
Long-time
readers will probably recall the details about Multikine, but if you're
relatively new, let's catch you up.
Initial
testing of Multikine, which is CEL-SCI's lead cancer treatment, has shown
effectiveness at not only beating head and neck cancer, but also at increasing
the survival rates of these cancer patients after their first illness.
See, cancer can be (and often is) a chronic condition. The advantage Multikine
may have over other forms of cancer treatment is how the results could
be more permanent than alternative treatments are.
In
fact, CEL-SCI says Phase I and Phase II studies have already indicated
Multikine has superior results when used to treat head and neck cancer.
Specifically, 12% of patients had no tumor remaining after only a three
week treatment. And, 3.5 years after the whole cancer treatment was finished,
survival with Multikine appeared to be much higher. In Phase II testing
CEL-SCI saw a 65% - 70% chance of survival with Multikine, versus only
a 50% chance without it.
Phase
III will look to verify these early results in a larger number of patients.
That's
Good Medicine
We've
talked about the results and effectiveness, but maybe we should at least
explain the basics behind why this cancer treatment holds so much promise
as well as monetary potential.
See,
Multikine is a combination, or "cocktail", of natural human interleukin-2
(IL-2) and certain lymphokines and cytokines (regulators of the immune
system). In human testing Multikine has been shown to induce both an anti-cancer
immune response and to significantly increase the susceptibility of the
tumor cells to radiation therapy. Or in plain English, it's an immune system
booster, but uses another type of immune cell in the attack on the tumor.
The
patient treatment process is a combination of the Multikine cocktail and
more traditional therapies. The global Phase III study will test the hypothesis
that the Multikine treatment regimen will indeed extend overall survival
in head and neck cancer patients, while increasing disease-free survival
in these patients.
Better
still, it's a non-toxic way to help beat cancer. What does that
mean? It doesn't cause the all the same negative side effects that radiation
and chemotherapy can when those treatments are used alone.
See
the attraction? Imagine a very effective cancer treatment, and one that
doesn't create a ton of other medical problems as part of the cancer-beating
process. Do you think there could be enormous potential demand for such
a therapy? We do - and that's why we think CVM shares could pay off
big in the near as well as distant future.
A
Trade, or an Investment? Maybe Both.
As
we said above, we're issuing an official trading alert based on the news.
While our trading ideas are typically shared using a straight-forward 'buy
low/sell high' framework with a relatively short timeframe in mind, we'd
be the first to acknowledge there's a short-term as well as a long-term
opportunity here.
The
longer-term 'investment' idea is based on the kinds of dollars CEL-SCI
is looking at. If Multikine is used only by 10% of the 500,000 newly-diagnosed
head and neck cancer patients each year, that means 50,000 patients per
annum. At the estimated cost of approximately $25,000 for each patient,
that's $1.25 billion in revenues each year. Yes, it could be years until
Multikine actually hits the market, but we'd say forward-thinking investors
may be well rewarded now for what the stock could be worth in the
future.
In
the meantime, we've seen CVM make huge short-term runs on fantastic news.
Shares rallied 137% in just two days last April when it was announced one
of CEL-SCI's therapies could help prolong the supply of bird flu vaccines.
Between February 10th and April 4th of 2006, the stock shot up 232% on
a combination of bird flu, new patent, and Multikine news.
For
short-term traders, we expect this news to drive the stock higher in a
hurry. Our suggested target is $1.48, which roughly mirrors the size of
the last news-based, short-term gain we saw for CVM shares. Our suggested
stop is 54 cents - just a hair below the lows we hit in December.
Of
course, by the time you get this, the news will have been out at least
a short while...which means the stock may already be running wild. If indeed
it is, we'd suggest being wise about an entry point. Perhaps an
entry level of no greater than 80 cents? Maybe - it just depends. It could
be hard to really find a reasonable entry area until we see how the market
responds, and we can actually define 'reasonable'. We might see
a one-day surge, or this may be the beginning of a very long uptrend...we've
seen both before. If it's the latter, it may be worth shopping for an advantageous
break in any buying spree.
Our
bigger picture (longer term) opinion is also a very optimistic one - we
think owning shares in CEL-SCI is easily worth the risk when looking at
the possible reward down the road. From our point of view, there's a light
at the end of the tunnel, and shareholders could be very well rewarded
as the company works its way from here to there. We'd say the Phase III
approval is a giant victory for the company, and an important step to investors
looking for great opportunities.
CEL-SCI RECEIVES
GREEN LIGHT FROM FDA TO PROCEED WITH PHASE III CANCER STUDY
VIENNA, VA, USA,
JANUARY 16, 2007 -- CEL-SCI Corporation (AMEX:
CVM, Germany: LSR.F) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration
(FDA) has stated in a letter to the Company that, "... the proposed Phase
III study may proceed at any time". CEL-SCI's Phase III clinical study
is designed to prove that its cancer drug Multikine? increases the survival
of head and neck cancer patients.
The study is expected
to be conducted in numerous countries around the world. It is designed
to develop conclusive evidence of the efficacy of the Multikine treatment
regimen in advanced primary squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity
(head and neck cancer). Upon successful completion of this study, the data
will be included in CEL-SCI's worldwide Marketing Applications to make
Multikine commercially available for the treatment of this patient population.
Head and neck cancer is an aggressive disease affecting about 500,000 people
per annum worldwide.
Geert Kersten,
Chief Executive Officer of CEL-SCI, said, "So far Multikine has been shown
to be non-toxic, which is very unusual for a cancer drug. In Phase II clinical
studies with head and neck cancer patients it also markedly increased survival.
Now we will get the chance to prove that Multikine can extend the survival
of these cancer patients."
The global Phase
III study will test the hypothesis that the Multikine treatment regimen,
administered locally prior to the current standard therapy given to patients
with advanced primary squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity, will
extend the overall survival and enhance the local/regional control of the
disease, while increasing disease free survival in these patients.
Multikine is a
patented immunotherapeutic agent consisting of a defined mixture of naturally
occurring cytokines, including interleukins, interferons, chemokines and
colony-stimulating factors.
CEL-SCI Corporation
is developing new immune system based treatments for cancer and infectious
diseases. The Company has operations in Vienna, Virginia and Baltimore,
Maryland.
When used in this
report, the words "intends," "believes," "anticipated" and "expects" and
similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.
Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause
actual results to differ materially from those projected. Factors that
could cause or contribute to such differences include an inability to duplicate
the clinical results demonstrated in clinical studies, timely development
of any potential products that can be shown to be safe and effective, receiving
necessary regulatory approvals, difficulties in manufacturing any of the
Company's potential products, inability to raise the necessary capital,
inability to get American Stock exchange approval for any transaction and
the risk factors set forth from time to time in CEL-SCI Corporation's SEC
filings, including but not limited to its report on Form 10-K for the year
ended September 30, 2005. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly
release the result of any revision to these forward-looking statements,
which may be made to reflect the events or circumstances after the date
thereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
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TGR Group LLC has been paid a fee
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Group LLC was paid a fee of $25,000 and 250,000 shares of newly issued
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of 2003. The aforementioned 250,000 restricted shares became free trading
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