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VOLUME
06: ISSUE 6
Feature:
Whatever Happened to Clearly Canadian? Sell Your QQQQ Puts.
The
premier beverage innovation company of the 1990's has been relatively quiet
for the past few years. We believe that that trend is about to change in
a very big way.
Clearly Canadian (OTCBB:
CCBEF), an icon of what is now categorized as the New Age Beverage
sector has completed an aggressive restructuring and is set to launch several
exciting new products in 2006. Further, the Company still enjoys 80 percent
brand recognition in the US on its flagship Clearly Canadian brand flavored
waters (which have sold over 1 billion bottles).
We've been watching the progress
of Clearly Canadian for a while now and think that investors would be well
advised to put the ticker on their watch list.
By 1992 Clearly Canadian had 15 million
shares outstanding and sales topped $187 million. The share price moved
from pennies in 1989 to $27 (pre splits) by 1992.
Since then the shares have been rolled
back twice resulting in a tight current structure of just under 7 million
shares and a current price of around $2.25--resulting in a market cap of
just under $16 million. Could lightning strike twice? We believe so.
We feel that as Clearly Canadian
sales gain momentum share price performance could well match or exceed
that previous impressive rise.
The
Clearly chart looks quite constructive. With the good consolidation after
the latest run-up on decent volume, stocks with this type of pattern tend
to break out to the upside.
Over the past two years, Clearly
has completed a major corporate restructuring and plans to re-take its
place as a major participant in this high-growth, high margin consumer
sector.
Since the inception of Clearly Canadian
in the late 1980's, the Company has sold over 90 million cases or 2 billion
bottles worldwide.
The highly competitive New Age Beverage
segment comprises 11 different categories; premium soda, sparkling water,
sports beverages, single-serve bottled water, regular and nutrient-enhanced
ready-to-drink tea, nutrient-enhanced fruit drinks, regular single-serve
fruit beverages, ready-to-drink coffee, vegetable/fruit juice blends, and
energy drinks.
The market for these drinks, including
non-carbonated offerings, is approaching $21 billion annually and the exponential
growth of the past few years shows no sign of abating.
We
feel that the new Clearly Canadian will be successful in attaining significant
market-share in the sector both for its core brands and new product offerings.
Why the robust growth? Simple.
We're drinking smarter.
Apparently tired of the dominance
of Coke and Pepsi et al, consumers are actively seeking out those products
with distinctive value added ingredients and taste. With all the press
regarding the health downsides of drinking traditional pops and colas,
healthier alternatives have become aggressively sought after. These beverages
include those with lower carbohydrate profiles, premium ingredients (including
organic) and good tasting alternatives to the ubiquitous high sodium and
sugar drinks, which have historically dominated the markets.
Other premium names in the sector
include Jones Soda (NASDAQ:
JSDA) and Hansen Natural Corp (NASDAQ:
HANS) with market caps of $138 million and $2.1 billion respectively.
Both have had great success in the sector over the last half-decade.
Jone's
share price has more than tripled to $6.50 in the last two years with a
period high of $8. Hansen's move in the last two years has been nothing
short of breathtaking coming from a single digit share price then to $95
(post a 2:1 split in 2005) today.
We believe the impressive share
price performance of these two peers gives us a picture into what could
be in store for shareholders of Clearly Canadian.
Given those performances and the
ongoing growth of the beverage market, both the sector and especially Clearly
Canadian are well worth following; especially due to the beaten down share
price, established name recognition and pending new product launches.
Clearly has a long history of successfully
delivering products to market that are both exciting and revolutionary.
Clearly virtually started the trend to New Age or what are also referred
to as 'Alternative' beverages.
Jone's and Hansen's success and continued
growth is testament to the vitality of the New Age Beverage phenomena and
bodes extremely well for Clearly Canadian as it brings 20 years of successful
product innovation to the sector and re-establishes itself as a major force.
Clearly Salient Points:
80 percent US consumer brand recognition
of Clearly Canadian.
$21 billion market for New Age beverages
and growing.
Successful 20-year history of innovation
of product and packaging.
Clearly Canadian to re-launch its full
line of Sparkling Waters.
New products scheduled for release in
2006.
Clean balance sheet.
Fixed costs significantly reduced and
controlled.
Company re-capitalized with a recent
cash infusion and potential $43 million financing.
Significant marketing and promotional
focus through system-wide distribution agreement with mammoth Dr.Pepper/7-Up
group.
Intends to aggressively expand private
label business.
Intends to acquire licensing agreements
for the Clearly Canadian brand.
Continues to expand global distribution
network.
New management team.
Strong product research and development.
The
two major avenues for success in the beverage sector are innovation and
distribution. The Company intends to expand its distribution arrangement
with Dr.Pepper/7-Up as well as access more channels to increase sales of
its products. The growing availability and success of Clearly in the populous
California/Nevada market--among others-- through this relationship evidences
both the popularity and overall recognition of the brand. We expect the
Company will be successful in establishing further robust distribution
channels through 2006.
As the once dominant force in what
is now termed the New Age Beverage sector, Clearly Canadian, under its
new management team will meet the competitive challenges by focusing on
products, exploiting its aggressive restructuring and re-launching new
and existing brands.
With a strong balance sheet and a
brand recognized by eight out of ten consumers, the stock is definitely
one that investors should put on their watch list as the story unfolds.
Lightning can indeed strike twice.
Sell
your QQQQ Puts. Now.
Speaking
of lightning, the market took a bolt to the chest, Friday.
We originally suggested buying some
of the QQQQ March 42 Puts at 55-60 cents on January
11th to take advantage of the downturn in the NASDAQ we saw coming.
On January
18th we recommended that you sell some or all of those Puts at
90-95 cents for an almost 50 percent gain. If you wanted to hold some or
all of them longer, we suggested that you sellout any left should the put
price cross $1 per contract.
Courtesy of the Friday market rout
the QQQQ March 42 Puts closed at a very nice $1.45 a contract.
Since options are for a good time,
not a long time, sellout any of these puts that you may have left
into Monday's market. There could be a further gap down or a bounce--we'll
have to wait and see. Since readers who bought in early and held now have
a 100 percent-plus return in less than 10 days, our measured opinion is
simple: take the money and run.
Clear?
We'll update on the market direction
once the dust settles.
We
Value Your Feedback
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or inquiry, please send it to our physical address:
TGR Group, LLC
4653 Carmel Mtn Rd Suite 308 #402
San Diego, CA 92130
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