News Details – Smallcapnetwork
This Company Just Filed Great Q4 Numbers, But Hasn't Announced it Yet
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Happy hump-day, one and all. Well, it wasn't exactly a happy one for investors, with the S&P 500 falling back a good bit. I think I've got something that'll put a smile on at least some of your faces, however... though I'm not even sure I was supposed to have it like this . Let's save this information for last, but I do want to give you a teaser - one of the stocks on our Featured Stock list quietly filed a full-year results report with the SEC this morning, but didn't put out a press release informing investors of those numbers. I think a PR is coming, but until it surfaces you may have access to some information most of the market doesn't even realize is available. Let's go ahead and get our daily look at the market taken care of. Ouch! Yet... You know, as ugly as today was, I still say it's too soon to assume this is the beginning of big trouble. In fact, the size of today's rout kind of has me thinking a bounce is in the cards - the market has been pretty good about snapping back from really, really sharp plunges like today. On the other hand, I'm not making any strong bets either way. What I'm (mentally) doing right now is taking a big step back and making sure I keep the bigger picture in mind. The cool part about this approach is, I know exactly what the market's make-or-break levels are, and what a more significant pullback will look like. First things first though. Let's look at the daily chart of the S&P 500. As we can plainly see, the S&P 500 closed below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. That's a bearish hint, although I find it interesting there wasn't more volume behind today's selling. This is the kind of chart where the smart thing to do is wait and see of the sellers were serious with today's action. It's not the daily timeframe I'm most concerned about right now, however. Remember this weekly chart of the S&P 500? It's the one with the long-term channel lines plotted on it. These lines extend all the way back to 2013, and have been THE most important lines of this bull market so far. Well, thanks to today's sharp selling, the S&P 500 is once again in a position to test the floor currently at 2040. What's interesting about this test of the lower edge of the rising channel is how it's NOT corresponding with a strong surge from the VIX. Generally speaking, the VIX has been at or near a ceiling at 21.5 each time the S&P 500 has been in this situation in the recent past. To not see it happening now is a potential bearish problem, as a spike in the VIX is one of our best clues that all the market's bearish overhang has been flushed out. The weekly chart of the NASDAQ Composite looks similar, though not exactly the same. The NASDAQ's long-term ceiling ended up being a problem after all, and the VXN has a lot of room to keep rising from where it is. What's different is how the composite could pull back quite a bit from where it is and still find a key floor. The S&P 500 doesn't have any major floors much below 2040. This is the long way of saying there's not enough certainty with our current situation to merit making any big bets. Simultaneously, there's too much risk of the S&P 500 breaking under a floor at 2040 to be using this dip as a blind buying opportunity. The smart-money move here is waiting for the rest of the chips to fall. We'll have some clear answers soon enough, and you can count on the SCN to provide them for you. An Earnings Sneak Preview.... Sort Of So what's this big secret I've got for you nobody else knows? Don't get the wrong idea - there's no subterfuge in play. We just got a major SEC filing from one of our profiled companies without getting a press release with it. It happens, though it's unusual. Then again, this company did the same thing when it reported Q3's results back in November. That is, we got the SEC filing first, and then four days later we got the press release. The company is CES Synergies (CESX). Those of you who were reading the newsletter back in November may remember our initial look at the company, but just to make sure we're all on the same page let's take a step back and give you a quick recap of CESX. In a nutshell, CES Synergies - through its subsidiary Cross Environmental Services - is a demolition company that specializes in remediation and abatement. In other words, it's qualified to tear down a building with lead and asbestos (among other things) in it. It's admittedly not a game-changing business, but it's an important one. The industry is worth $18 billion annually in the United States, and ever-increasing EPA standards are forcing more and more construction companies to tap names like CES Synergies when a building needs to be removed or remodeled. We became fans of CESX back in November largely because it was putting an expansion effort into place, and the growth opportunity was significant... much bigger than most of the market seemed to recognize . Part of that expansion effort was founded on its new status as a GSA-approved service provider, meaning government agencies and departments were free to hire CES Synergies without going through a bidding or procurement process. But, CES Synergies was also aiming to expand the old-fashioned way by hiring more salespeople and winning more business with its wider footprint. We got a good hint the effort was working when we heard third quarter results in late November. Sales were up 16% on a year-over-year basis. We got a decisive hint of this progress this morning, however, using the company's full-year filing to determine CES Synergies generated $7.2 million in sales in its fourth quarter. That's 63% stronger than the Q4-2013 top line. All told, last year's revenue of $21.0 million was 35% stronger than 2013's total of $15.5 million. The numbers are encouraging, but perhaps not even as encouraging as the chart of quarterly revenue for the past two years. Not only is the company growing rapidly, the pace of that growth is still picking up steam. The current year could be downright explosive if last quarter's growth is any indication of how well the expansion effort is taking hold now. Like I mentioned above, odds are good a press release with the full-year and Q4 numbers is on the way. The 10-K filing is about as official and public as it gets though, so we wanted to go ahead and get the info out to you as soon as possible. Not everybody is even aware the company posted the filing, and those who are may not have even read it, presuming a press release explaining everything is coming soon. This delay gives all of you some time to poke and prod the stock before the bulk of traders realize just how well CES Synergies is doing now. I wouldn't tarry too much if you're mulling a position though, as a press release could come out at anytime from here, and I've got a feeling it could spark a bullish response. If you missed the initial look at CESX, you can revisit it here. If you want some additional perspective on why 2015 could be a banner year for CES Synergies though, James Brumley offered some surprising industry data earlier this month.