In
This Edition...
New Trading
Ideas: OZRK (Bearish), RNWK (Bullish)
Time to
Raise or Lower Stops - PFF, PTSEF, EW, BZH, GLBC, CAGC
Let's
Just Dump 'Em - BGZ, ELRA, DL, EGOV, ES, ECPG
New
Trading Ideas
I'm
still inclined to keep trading on both sides of the market, as opposed
to just going long and riding the wave - the waves have to stop sometime,
and I don't want to be positioned wrong when it does.
So,
I've got another pair of trade ideas for you... one bullish, one bearish.
Bank
of the Ozarks Inc. (OZRK) - Short/Bearish
Don't
read too much into this bearish trade; this isn't an indication of how
we feel about the banking industry. It isn't even an assessment of how
we feel about OZRK as a company. It's strictly a 'trade' based on the chart.
In
short, Ozark's shares fell under a short-term support level today following
a high-volume reversal bar (bearish) from May 26th. Clearly the reversal
took hold.
We're
not looking for a huge move... probably just something down to the rising
support level under $18.00 (though the line will be higher than that by
the time it matters).
RealNetworks
Inc. (RNWK) - Long/Bullish
As
with Bank of the Ozarks, don't get bogged down by valuations or justifications,
as this is strictly a short-term trade based more on the chart and less
on fundamentals. In fact, in RealNetwork's case, there is no fundamental
justification, as there are no earnings.
Nevertheless,
we're willing to step into a position based on a couple of key factors.
The
first one is upward momentum. RNWK has moved above a couple of key moving
averages in the last three weeks, and has found support at one of them.
A big resistance line was also cracked.
The
second and bigger reason we like our odds with RealNetworks, however, is
significant amount of buying volume we're seeing behind this move higher.
All stocks are going higher, but very few stocks are attracting this much
accumulation. Does somebody know something? Maybe. We think it's worth
a shot.
Raise
(or Lower) Stops On...
When
you have as many open trades as we do, you can't always baby-sit all of
them. In those cases, the easiest and best thing to do may just be to pre-establish
exit parameters so you can focus on other things.
So,
here are the trades I think it's time to set up stops on; we'll revisit
them later if profitability continues to widen.
iShares
S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (PFF) - This trade goes all the
way back to late January, though I'm glad we decided to hold onto it that
long... we're up about 27% now, after a rocky start.
Points
Intl. LTD. (PTSEF) - This pick has given us plenty of ups and downs
since our early May entry at 42 cents, but at least we've seen more up
then down. It's not like we have a ton of 'clearance' here with the current
price of 45 cents, but the overall uptrend has strengthened enough to let
us play defense.
Edwards
Lifesciences Corp. (EW) -This one's an oldie too, from mid-January.
The stock broke to another new high yesterday, so we've now got enough
cushion to push the stop up to, say $60 or so?
Beazer
Homes USA Inc. (BZH) - The ride from our entry at $2.16 to the peak
of $3.95 was a lot of fun. The trip back to a low of $2.05 wasn't a lot
of fun. Now we're at $2.63...time to get serious here, and draw a line
in the sand to protect our profit.
Global
Crossing Ltd. (GLBC) - GLBC fell asleep on the job a few days after
our early May entry, but seems to be working on busting out of a very narrow
trading range. I'm not sure if that'll happen though, so let's raise our
stop to a break-even while we can
China
Agritech Inc. (CAGC) - We're sitting on about a 20% gain as I write
this, which is enough to start thinking defensively. This one's still a
question mark in my book, but I can't complain so far.
Make
Outright Exits On...
Other
times, trades can be a distraction at best, and sap your overall profitability
at worst. Since 'getting out' seems to be the toughest discipline to learn,
I'll give you a little help - we don't want to bother with these trades
any longer, so you can dump 'em at your earliest convenience.
Direxion
3x Bearish ETF (BGZ) - This is our newest trade, but one designed to
capitalize on something that clearly hasn't happened yet... and these leveraged
ETFs are too volatile to play around with. Keep it on your watchlist though.
I'm quite certain that we'll be utilizing the bearish ETF again in the
very near future - the market is still well overbought, and artificially
run up.
Elray
Resources, Inc. (ELRA) - I had such high hopes for this one, but after
more than a month of zero progress, it's time to pull the plug.
China
Distance Education Holdings Limited (DL) - Here's another one I think will
ultimately go our way (bearish), but right now, it's just keeping your
capital unproductive.
NIC
Inc. (EGOV) - Lock in your 22% profit on this short-term trade. NIC
Inc. surged to a close of $7.00, and isn't likely to drift any higher anytime
soon. A bird in the hand....
EnergySolutions,
Inc (ES) - I debated whether or not I wanted to get out of this short/bearish
trade. In the end, I decided we're just not getting enough traction to
justify the risk despite today's dip. The trade's actually pretty profitable
for us, so let's lock it down while we can.
Encore
Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) - This short/bearish trade was designed
to be a hedge, so from that perspective it did its job. It just didn't
go down. I'm not going to be stubborn here - make an exit and move on.
Coming
Soon
Did
you know the three month rally we just witnessed was the strongest three
month period we've seen since 1962?
As
impressive as the feat is though, I've learned to be very nervous when
I start witnessing history being made (or very optimistic, depending
on the case).
See,
following the once-in-a-generation gain, I've got a sneaking suspicion
we're still due for a pullback... even though strong housing data for April
could keep stocks moving up for a couple more days while the euphoria wears
off. I'm not going to fight the crowd though - I'll just wait 'em out.
We'll
see how things are shaping up for the market in our next edition.