News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Technical Trade Alerts: Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK), RealNetworks (RNWK)
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

In This Edition... New Trading Ideas: OZRK (Bearish), RNWK (Bullish)  Time to Raise or Lower Stops - PFF, PTSEF, EW, BZH, GLBC, CAGC  Let's Just Dump 'Em - BGZ, ELRA, DL, EGOV, ES, ECPG  New Trading Ideas I'm still inclined to keep trading on both sides of the market, as opposed to just going long and riding the wave - the waves have to stop sometime, and I don't want to be positioned wrong when it does.  So, I've got another pair of trade ideas for you... one bullish, one bearish. Bank of the Ozarks Inc. (OZRK) - Short/Bearish  Don't read too much into this bearish trade; this isn't an indication of how we feel about the banking industry. It isn't even an assessment of how we feel about OZRK as a company. It's strictly a 'trade' based on the chart.  In short, Ozark's shares fell under a short-term support level today following a high-volume reversal bar (bearish) from May 26th. Clearly the reversal took hold.  We're not looking for a huge move... probably just something down to the rising support level under $18.00 (though the line will be higher than that by the time it matters).  RealNetworks Inc. (RNWK) - Long/Bullish  As with Bank of the Ozarks, don't get bogged down by valuations or justifications, as this is strictly a short-term trade based more on the chart and less on fundamentals. In fact, in RealNetwork's case, there is no fundamental justification, as there are no earnings.  Nevertheless, we're willing to step into a position based on a couple of key factors.  The first one is upward momentum. RNWK has moved above a couple of key moving averages in the last three weeks, and has found support at one of them. A big resistance line was also cracked.  The second and bigger reason we like our odds with RealNetworks, however, is significant amount of buying volume we're seeing behind this move higher. All stocks are going higher, but very few stocks are attracting this much accumulation. Does somebody know something? Maybe. We think it's worth a shot.    Raise (or Lower) Stops On... When you have as many open trades as we do, you can't always baby-sit all of them. In those cases, the easiest and best thing to do may just be to pre-establish exit parameters so you can focus on other things.  So, here are the trades I think it's time to set up stops on; we'll revisit them later if profitability continues to widen.  iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (PFF) - This trade goes all the way back to late January, though I'm glad we decided to hold onto it that long... we're up about 27% now, after a rocky start.  Points Intl. LTD. (PTSEF) - This pick has given us plenty of ups and downs since our early May entry at 42 cents, but at least we've seen more up then down. It's not like we have a ton of 'clearance' here with the current price of 45 cents, but the overall uptrend has strengthened enough to let us play defense.  Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (EW) -This one's an oldie too, from mid-January. The stock broke to another new high yesterday, so we've now got enough cushion to push the stop up to, say $60 or so?  Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH) - The ride from our entry at $2.16 to the peak of $3.95 was a lot of fun. The trip back to a low of $2.05 wasn't a lot of fun. Now we're at $2.63...time to get serious here, and draw a line in the sand to protect our profit.  Global Crossing Ltd. (GLBC) - GLBC fell asleep on the job a few days after our early May entry, but seems to be working on busting out of a very narrow trading range. I'm not sure if that'll happen though, so let's raise our stop to a break-even while we can  China Agritech Inc. (CAGC) - We're sitting on about a 20% gain as I write this, which is enough to start thinking defensively. This one's still a question mark in my book, but I can't complain so far.  Make Outright Exits On... Other times, trades can be a distraction at best, and sap your overall profitability at worst. Since 'getting out' seems to be the toughest discipline to learn, I'll give you a little help - we don't want to bother with these trades any longer, so you can dump 'em at your earliest convenience.  Direxion 3x Bearish ETF (BGZ) - This is our newest trade, but one designed to capitalize on something that clearly hasn't happened yet... and these leveraged ETFs are too volatile to play around with. Keep it on your watchlist though. I'm quite certain that we'll be utilizing the bearish ETF again in the very near future - the market is still well overbought, and artificially run up.  Elray Resources, Inc. (ELRA) - I had such high hopes for this one, but after more than a month of zero progress, it's time to pull the plug.  China Distance Education Holdings Limited (DL) - Here's another one I think will ultimately go our way (bearish), but right now, it's just keeping your capital unproductive.  NIC Inc. (EGOV) - Lock in your 22% profit on this short-term trade. NIC Inc. surged to a close of $7.00, and isn't likely to drift any higher anytime soon. A bird in the hand....  EnergySolutions, Inc (ES) - I debated whether or not I wanted to get out of this short/bearish trade. In the end, I decided we're just not getting enough traction to justify the risk despite today's dip. The trade's actually pretty profitable for us, so let's lock it down while we can.  Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) - This short/bearish trade was designed to be a hedge, so from that perspective it did its job. It just didn't go down. I'm not going to be stubborn here - make an exit and move on.  Coming Soon Did you know the three month rally we just witnessed was the strongest three month period we've seen since 1962?  As impressive as the feat is though, I've learned to be very nervous when I start witnessing history being made (or very optimistic, depending on the case). See, following the once-in-a-generation gain, I've got a sneaking suspicion we're still due for a pullback... even though strong housing data for April could keep stocks moving up for a couple more days while the euphoria wears off. I'm not going to fight the crowd though - I'll just wait 'em out. We'll see how things are shaping up for the market in our next edition.