News Details – Smallcapnetwork
The Russell 2000 Holds All the Cards
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Welcome to the weekend, everyone. We've got a couple of different things for you today, but I want to begin with the most important one -- keep your eyes peeled Monday morning for a new trading idea. We've been doing to rather deep research on the red-hot wearable market and have come across a name that's quietly positioned to do what many thought Fitbit (FIT) was supposed to so, but never did.... just because it couldn't. I can't give you the company name yet; you'll just have to wait until Monday. I will whet your appetite just a bit though, and paint the backdrop. Long story made short, the premise of the Fitbit wearable activity tracker isn't a bad one. The company's just not gotten much else right about its product intent and marketing. The end result? A stock that soared 70% in less than two months after its IPO, followed by more than an 80% implosion from that high (a move to 60% below its debut price) as investors realized Fitbit wearables could never be what a few too many people assumed they were. That is, a medical-grade device. It's a decent enough technology, but users weren't expecting or needing a less-than-accurate novelty. They wanted and needed an affordable, hyper-reliable and highly accurate heart monitor. They didn't get it. The premise, though, was never a bad one. It just needed a better business execution, and the company simply overlooked a couple of fatal flaws in its business plan. Monday's company was built from the ground up to avoid those flaws. I'll also add this hint... the company we're going to be unveiling on Monday morning is still in the heart-monitoring space, which just so happens to be a market worth more than $20 billion per year; some say it will be worth $26.7 billion by 2020. Meanwhile, the fitness market generates $75 billion worth of revenue per year. The healthcare wearable market was worth $5.1 billion in 2015, now that such technologies are being accepted, its revenues could reach $19 billion by 2020. So, Fitbit wasn't dumb in trying to carve out a piece of the pie where those three markets overlap. It's just that in trying to operate squarely in the middle of those markets, it didn't end up serving any of them well enough. Monday's featured stock is leaning a little more to one market than the others, and for good reason. In so doing, it will decidedly satisfy the customers who will ultimately be paying the bill. I really can't say any more than that without saying too much. If you want to know more, check your e-mail on Monday morning. In the meantime, let's take a look at the market's key indices, shall we? Here's the daily chart of the S&P 500. It's pretty much what you would expect to see after a three-week 8% runup. That's a tough act to follow, as there's so much profit-taking potential casting a dark cloud on things. For the first time in a couple weeks we saw a lower low, and the close was not only below Thursday's closing level, it was in the lower half of the day's trading range. Maybe it was just a pre-weekend pause. Or, maybe it was exactly what it looked like it was... traders are getting nervous now that they realize how high the tightrope is, and that they're not working with a net below them. Thing is, all this time we may have been watching the wrong index. Giving credit where it's due, it was the Black Ops Trader that brought it to my attention today in that particular newsletter. It said (and I'm only giving you a small snippet of the insight it offered): "The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index finally breached that 1,200 level this week, so assuming the NASDAQ and/or the S&P 500 find their way to those above mentioned levels, we could be in for at least a nice healthy pullback... ...This doesn't come without a fair amount of risk, but when you look at the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 below, and you consider the index has finally achieved that 1200 level here, if there's any sector of the markets due to reverse, it's likely going to be small caps. We're not suggesting a long-term top right now, only a potential pullback. However, should things really start to fall apart on a short-term basis, you'll have plenty of options to decide what to do from there assuming you're well in the money." Here's the chart he was talking about. He's right. While we've been mostly looking at the S&P 500 and then the NASDAQ, the current market situation is one that requires you to keep tabs on everything. Thing is, the Black Ops Team may not even realize how important the Russell 2000's current situation is. See, the recent market action hasn't made a lot of sense. Usually the NASDAQ leads other major large cap stocks, higher or lower, while the small caps tend to lead both in a healthy bull market (in a bigger picture sense) even though they tend to pull back more when the market goes through corrections. Here's the long, long-term comparison of how these indices rise and fall - or don't rise and fall - together. The Russell 2000 started the bull market out in the lead, as usual, but fell considerably behind the NASDAQ in 2014, and then kept lagging until the S&P 500 caught up with it in early 2016. The small caps have since revived, but not reclaimed their leadership role relative to the NASDAQ. And, it seems like large caps are starting to catch up with the NASDAQ. The bottom line is, we've not seen the normal interplay between the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and small caps of late. They'll reconnect sooner or later, and the recent volatility may well be the driver of that sync-up. If it is -- and if the 1200 level means something for the Russell 2000 -- we may want to be taking our smaller and bigger cues from it rather than other charts. If the small caps peel back to or below large caps, well, that's a worry... that's usually what you see at the beginning of bear markets (even as all of them are still going up). It's not a major conundrum right now, but it's on the radar. That's one of the reasons the Russell 2000's 1200 level is such a big deal. It has long-term implications as well as short-term trading ones. We'll certainly be watching it closer from here, and we suggest you do the same. And by the way, you'd be wise to listen to what the Black Ops Trader team has to say. While they chime in on the market from time to time with some great insights (today was just a small taste), mostly they find great stock trading ideas, bullish and bearish. Here's how you can use those ideas to boost your portfolio's bottom line.