Is everybody ready for the weekend? Should be a good one for most people, although some of us might find a little rain in our immediate future. That's better than snow or cold. I'll take it.
Anyway, while Friday wasn't a particularly dramatic session, I think it did tell us a lot about the way investors are feeling right now.... or not feeling. More directly, this week - and Friday's action in particular - is telling us traders are bullish up to a point, but aren't willing to stick their neck out when push comes to shove. That's not an idea I just pulled out of a hat either; there's a specific, technical reason I'm saying it.
I know you may be a little sick of hearing it from me, but the truth is the truth, and the truth is, there's a major ceiling for the S&P 500 right around 1849. Wednesday's high was 1847.7 before the index peeled back into the red. Today's high was 1846.13 before the buying effort waned. As you can see on the chart of the S&P 500 below, the 1849 was a big ceiling in late January as well as in late December. Take a look.
Whether it's become a self-fulfilling prophecy or there's a specific reason the S&P 500 can't clear it, I don't know. It doesn't matter though - there's a wall there, and the more times the index brushes that ceiling but doesn't hurdle it, the tougher it becomes to work past with the next effort. Point being, if the S&P 500 can't get to 1850 or higher soon, a lot of investors are going to lose faith and/or lose interest, letting the market slide lower.
You know what though? There's nothing we can do about any of it right now. The market's on hold here, and could be for a while until enough investors decide stocks are overvalued or undervalued at their current level. Trying to force the market's hand isn't going to do any good.
We'll pick this discussion up again on Monday. There's something else I wanted to share with you today.
Almost Great Stock Picks
You know, last year's stock-picking was pretty darn good. Thirteen of our sixteen picks were profitable, and we averaged a again of about 15% per trade. This year so far, hasn't been nearly as good.
It's no been bad, mind you. We haven't taken any losses of more than a few percentage points (as in 8% or less). But, we haven't scored any big wins either. That's ok though, because I know those winners are on the way. We just need to keep picking using the same approach we used last year, and we need to keep a short leash on all of those picks once we're in them. The market will cooperate sooner or later.
On that note, while we're not going to be adding any new trades to our current list of open ideas on Silicon Image (SIMG), Northwest Pipe (NWPX), CubeSmart (CUBE), and PICO Holdings (PICO), I did want to show you some of the ideas that popped up as trade candidates this week.
I don't have the time or the desire to tell you my trading system, nor would I want to share it if I did. I will tell you the same thing I say every time we tack on a new trade here in the newsletter's mock portfolio, though.... I'm looking for budding technical strength as much as I'm looking for improving fundamentals. And yes, my software and algorithm allow me to do that with the press of a button.
So what showed up this week that's of interest? Here's a look at some of the top possibilities, with a look at what else we'd like to see happen before pulling the trigger on any of these trades. In no particular order...
While EMC (EMC) is still expensive at a trailing P/E of 19.1, its income growth has outpaced the stock's appreciation since 2010, and I see more of the same kind of earnings growth going forward. What I'd really like to see is EMC bust out of the wedge pattern it's been forming since 2011.
Although Frontier Communications (FTR) has watched its earnings deteriorate over the past couple of years, this year could be the pivot point for the company. Per-share income is expected to roll in at 24 cents in 2014, versus 23 cents for last year. The chart's started to loosely reflect the company's turnaround, via a string of higher highs and higher lows. We'll just have to see how things shape up here next week.
The same can be said for Atmel (ATML) ... the past couple of years hasn't been encouraging, but 2014 could be a real turnaround year for the company, and the stock. The momentum has been bullish for a year, and the recent pullback could make for a great entry opportunity.
Honestly, I never realized that Tangor Factory Outlet (SKT) was the name of the company that owned them, nor that it was a publicly-traded company. But, there it is. I love the rebound effort that's materialized since the mid-2013 selloff. We're getting a great entry opportunity into a long-term uptrend.
I really had to zoom out to show you just how long the uptrend from MKS Instruments (MKSI) has been in place, even though income has been falling. As is the case with so many of the other names being added to our watchlist though, things should improve for MKSI beginning this year. This year's projected bottom line of $1.57 should be better than last year's earnings of $0.90 per share, while 2015's expected profit is $1.80. This long-term rally isn't going anywhere. The trick is finding the right entry point.
Kaman Corp. (KAMN) shares have already fought their way past a key horizontal line at $38.50, but they seem to be getting comfortable above that mark, and are even gearing up for another round of slingshot action past the resistance level at $40.15. The sales and earnings growth has always been there, even if sporadically.
Astec Industries (ASTE) looks like it's just a few days away from breaking through the upper side of a long-term wedge pattern. Yeah, it's tried to do so before, and failed, but the bulls have remained in position to take another swing. Looks like they're intent on making it happen.
Truth be told, SurModics (SRDX) may not be seeing its earnings shrink, but it's not like they're on pace to grow like gangbusters this year either. Next year should be a tad better, but again, nothing to write home about. Regardless, the recent bullishness from this stock is close to putting the finishing touches on a major cup-and-handle pattern.
OK, there were actually a few more candidates that showed up on this week's scans, but we've already gone long, and the eight ideas above should be more than enough to keep us all busy over the weekend. I might show you the rest sometime early next week.
Now, while we're not yet adding any of those eight possibilities to our portfolio, I will tell you that if you were to go ahead and get into one or two of them, you wouldn't be the only one doing so. They're all pretty good looking as is, even if I'm holding out for something closer to perfection. Use 'em, don't use 'em. Your call. I just though we'd put them on your plate in case you were in need of some new possibilities. If we do decide to officially add any of them to the unofficial SmallCap Network portfolio, we'll say so in the newsletter.
That's it for today, folks. Have a great weekend!