Good Monday to you. Hope your weekend was either very relaxing or action packed, however you like to spend time recharging your batteries. It's nice to see competent referees back in the NFL, that's for sure. However, competent refs or no competent refs, it's a heck of a lot more profitable and predictable to bet on companies than it is to bet on the NFL. Trust me, that comment comes from experience. As a matter of fact, horses are even more predictable than the NFL. Ha. Enough useless banter. Let's get going...
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On to the markets today. We're seeing strength across the board this morning, particularly with the DOW Jones Industrial Index. It appears the media is giving credit for today's sharp move higher in the DOW to the Institute for Supply Management, which reported that U.S. manufacturing grew in September for the first time in four months. Although that doesn't necessarily suggest our economy is most definitely on the mend, it sure doesn't hurt. One month does not a trend make. Regardless, it's still good to see the DOW pop, as it's by far the oldest bellwether index for stocks.
The reason I point out the DOW this morning is because every time the DOW has made a strong move in recent months, like the one we're seeing today, it has inevitable been followed by further upside. Have a look at this daily chart I've included of the index. Although an immediate move higher hasn't necessarily been the case every time, it's only been a matter of days or a few short weeks before it found a new short-term high. However, in the best interest of being completely fair and objective to what's going on right now, I'll also point out something slightly concerning. There's bit of a rounding top pattern going on in the DOW, which I've circled here, so until we get confirmation of breaking that rounding top to the upside, I wouldn't be hanging on to profitable open call options positions very long. Continue to be opportunistic and take profits when they're there. Same goes for open put positions.
I will also point out the NASDAQ Indexes are waffling and not quite as strong as their S&P or DOW counterparts today. A bit concerning, but not the end of the world since tech has been the strength of this market for the last few years. And, it's only the first few hours of the week so far. We mentioned last week the possibility of a little further weakness in the cards before moving higher, however, we'll have to see what the rest of the week has in store. I've also included a daily chart of the NASDAQ Composite here showing you tech has found some support around the 25X5 DMA (purple line), which is often a tough nut to crack to the downside when the markets are trending up on a weekly basis.
For now, here's the bottom line. Should the NASDAQ, the S&P and DOW take out there September 14th highs, we're likely going to be off to the races once again. Should the markets reverse today's course and move lower, we see a significant amount of support between 3020 and 3058 on the NASDAQ Composite, which may prove to be an excellent entry to the long side. Although that would be roughly 100 points lower from current levels, it still keeps the longer-term charts intact. Therefore, if for some reason the indexes flip today's bullish bias to a sharp move lower this week, we don't suggest longer-term players freak out.
We believe this market still has some excellent upside left in the weeks ahead, but it's all likely going to be predicated on third quarter earnings. We've been saying for quite some time now, you can forget about Bernanke, the election and all of the lagging economic data for the time being because it's all going to be about earnings. Right now, stocks are priced a little aggressively for a solid third quarter earnings season, so it has to be good.