Don't Dig Too Deep Into the Market's Reversal Effort

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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It looks like the bulls finally decided enough was enough on Tuesday, completing the reversal effort that ultimately failed on Monday. It's still just a dead-cat bounce at this point, but considering even this mere dead-cat bounce could lift the S&P 500 up by another couple of percentage points before facing any real tests, it's worth a closer look.


What I really want to look at is the shape of the weekly bar (so far) of the S&P 500, the shape of the VIX's bar from yesterday, and how the VIX's lead-in from Friday and the response today play into Monday's bar. Simply put, the clues say we're in the midst of a near-term reversal.

What Investors Need to Know After This Week's Drubbing

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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The thud you heard around the middle of the day on Friday was the sound of millions of investors' jaws hitting the floor at the same time. While there were more than a few people who certainly recognized the market was a little frothy, it's pretty safe to say the scope of the pullback over the past two days has sent a lot of surprised investors scurrying.


The market's key indices have broken under key support levels too. Remember how I mentioned to you yesterday the S&P 500 only needed to break under its 50-day moving average line to officially move over to the bearish side of the fence? Yeah, well, that happened today.


You know what though? As technically bearish as most charts turned on Friday, I have to play the role of the devil's advocate here (just because you're not getting this perspective anywhere else) and point out how the S&P 500 has quickly overcome this situation before... and not even that long ago. Oh, I'm still a short-term bear, but you deserve to know the whole story and not just the hysteria most financial news sources are giving you now.

The Market's Still Breathing, But We're Exiting This Trade Anyway

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Wham! That's why can't turn your back on the market... even for just a day. Unless you're truly in stocks for the long haul (as in multi-year holding periods), days like Thursday can turn a decent month for stocks into a frustrating one.


You know what though? While today's decimation was ugly, I don't know that I'd say the sellers pushed stocks past their tipping point. In fact, one of the best things the bulls have going for them today is the sheer size of the plunge.

A Scary But Plausible Outlook for Gold

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Good afternoon, everybody. How was your Wednesday? For the market it was uneventful, which is why we don't have a lot to say about it today. We certainly have something to say about a handful of specific stocks, however. Let's start with a quick look at today's chart of the S&P 500, since that'll take the least amount of time and space.


Still On the Fence

Q4's Earnings Scoreboard - Not Off to a Red Hot Start

Jul 9, 2020

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01:13 PM PST

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Welcome back, folks. Hopefully the winter weather that's ripping through the northeastern quarter of the country isn't proving to be too much of a drag for those of you in affected areas, but if you are catching the brunt of the snowfall, at least you can take some solace in the fact that that most of it is past us by this point.


Whatever the case is with the weather, we'll start this week with a look at the earnings scoreboard so far, now that roughly 13% of the S&P 500's companies have reported last quarter's numbers. We'll wrap up with a quick look at the overall market, though the only thing to really say about today is that traders remain very much on the fence.


Q4 Earnings Scoreboard

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