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And so it begins. Just a few moments ago, Alcoa (AA) kicked off the second quarter earnings season by reporting a profit of 18 cents per share, topping estimates of 12 cents. The year-ago figure was 7 cents per share. Perhaps more important, the company maintained its expectation that aluminum demand was going to swell by 7% this year.

Anyway, we'll break down Q2's projected earnings by individual sectors below, just to get a better feel for what to expect over the next five weeks. The first thing we need to get out of the way is the discussion of Tuesday's market action, which doled out more exasperation. Not frustration - exasperation. You'll see.

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Welcome back, one and all. We hope everyone had a great Independence Day weekend. It's back to work for us, however, so let's just dive in and start talking about the 800 pound gorilla in the room - the market's steep selloff on Monday.

To answer your most pressing question first, yes, I do believe today's stumble is the beginning of a more serious pullback. Gotta be honest though... I still can't tell you I think the bears have made a highly convincing case yet. One rough day after seven very bullish days is simply typical, and there are still a few ways the market could stop its bleeding before the pullback developed any momentum.

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Is everybody stoked about the three-day, 4th of July weekend? I am. If you're going to be traveling, please be careful. And, if your weekend involves any sort of at-home fireworks, also be careful. Being a statistic this time of year could really dampen the spirit of Independence Day, ya know?

Anyway, as we largely expected following yesterday's impressive payroll growth number from ADP, the Department of Labor's numbers for June were just as impressive when unveiled today. And, as is always the case, there's more to the story than just the numbers you read in the headlines. First things first though... the biggies.

In June, the DOL said we added 288,000 new jobs, pushing the unemployment rate down from 6.3% to 6.1%. For perspective, economists were expecting 210,000 new payrolls, and were looking for the unemployment rate to roll in at 6.3% again.

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Howdy folks. How was your Wednesday? Things were clearly a little lethargic for the market. Much of the lull can be chalked up to traders not being quite sure what's in store for stocks in the near-term, but a big chunk of Wednesday's stand-still is also attributable to the approaching holiday. Yes, the market's closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day, and people are stretching the three-day weekend into a four-day and even a five-day weekend, beginning today.

On that note, we'll not be publishing anything on Friday, since there won't be much of anything to talk about. Also note Thursday's edition will be published a little earlier than usual, as the market closes at 1:00 pm EST that day.

With the market being closed on Friday, there are a few announcements being displaced. Namely, the Department of Labor will be unveiling June's unemployment data on Thursday rather than the usual first Friday of the month.

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And so ends the first half of 2014. And what a first half it was! All told, the S&P 500 is up 6.1% year-to-date, which technically makes it the leader for the year so far. The NASDAQ is running a close second though, with 5.6% gain since the end of 2013. Most of those gains were achieved in the second quarter. In fact, Q2 of this year was the best second-quarter since 2009.

The $64,000 question is, of course, where are things apt to go from here? The market is still overbought, and complacency is still dangerously high. Could the beginning of a new calendar quarter also mean the introduction of a whole new mindset for the market? It remains to be decided. Based on what we can see right now, however, I'm still voting for at least a small pullback.